Abilene Christian

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	260.0
Current RPI:	260
Expected SOS:	318
Current SOS:	318
Current Record:	12-15
Expected Record:	12-15
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	216
Expected OOC SOS:	270

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-15	260.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Abilene Christian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	83-69	L	0%
11-20	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	67-75	L	0%
11-24	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	80-85	W	100%
11-25	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	N	88-78	L	0%
11-26	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	N	88-83	W	100%
12-6	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	58-62	W	100%
12-9	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	72-68	W	100%
12-17	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	67-65	L	0%
12-22	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	74-47	L	0%
12-28	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	77-74	L	0%
12-30	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	75-72	W	100%
1-3	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	79-74	W	100%
1-6	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	70-72	L	0%
1-10	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	74-82	W	100%
1-13	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	58-69	W	100%
1-17	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	66-76	L	0%
1-20	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	63-80	W	100%
1-24	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	80-66	L	0%
1-31	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	74-69	W	100%
2-3	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	84-77	L	0%
2-7	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	65-69	L	0%
2-10	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	80-69	W	100%
2-17	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	68-54	L	0%
2-22	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	67-76	L	0%
2-24	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	72-74	L	0%
2-28	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	76-56	L	0%
3-3	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	59-69	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Abilene Christian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Abilene Christian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Abilene Christian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Abilene Christian	Slnd	26.34	26.34	46.62	46.62	-1.78	-1.78
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.66	4.66	78.57	78.57	2.66	2.66
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.60	4.60	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.59	4.59	51.85	51.85	0.17	0.17
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.57	4.57	60.71	60.71	0.98	0.98
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.54	4.54	25.00	25.00	-2.27	-2.27
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.46	4.46	13.64	13.64	-3.24	-3.24
Lipscomb	ASun	3.77	3.77	66.67	66.67	1.26	1.26
New Orleans	Slnd	2.87	2.87	40.74	40.74	-0.53	-0.53
Lamar	Slnd	2.82	2.82	55.56	55.56	0.31	0.31
Houston Baptist	Slnd	2.76	2.76	11.11	11.11	-2.15	-2.15
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.74	2.74	59.26	59.26	0.51	0.51
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.70	2.70	8.33	8.33	-2.25	-2.25
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.65	2.65	33.33	33.33	-0.88	-0.88
USC Upstate	ASun	2.04	2.04	7.41	7.41	-1.74	-1.74
Texas St.	SB	2.02	2.02	43.33	43.33	-0.27	-0.27
Bowling Green	MAC	1.92	1.92	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Campbell	BSth	1.92	1.92	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Air Force	MWC	1.88	1.88	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Arkansas St.	SB	1.88	1.88	27.59	27.59	-0.84	-0.84
Texas Tech	B12	1.85	1.85	71.88	71.88	0.81	0.81
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.32	0.32	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.32	0.32	80.65	80.65	0.19	0.19
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.31	0.31	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.29	0.29	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
Little Rock	SB	0.27	0.27	20.00	20.00	-0.16	-0.16
Jacksonville	ASun	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.25	0.25	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.21	0.21	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	22.22	22.22	-0.10	-0.10
Belmont	OVC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Houston	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01